Reinforcement Learning Algo Trading

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Background

AlphaGo Zero

  • The success was because they created a system with 3 parts (DNNs, RL, and branching).
  • They had real players come and validate the moves and strategies.
  • Finally once they had a powerful model, they trained it further on games against itself.
  • 0 sum game

Stock Market

  • The stock market is volatile and filled with noise from orders and news.
  • There are basically 3 key players: retail investors, institutional investors, and independent investors.
  • Strategies include arbitrage, day trading, value trading, swing trading, gambling, and retail trading.
  • Unlike the moves in a Go game, the player often has little to no influence on the results of the game unless it has either media influence or lots of money. Moves include (buying, selling/writing, shorting, exercising, publishing, commenting). These moves can be performed on most stocks, derivatives, currencys, or media outlets without any explicit rules.
  • Not a 0 sum game.

##SkyWing

Input Streams

  • News feeds via scraping or APIs.
  • SEC earnings reports and filings.
  • Price candle data.
  • Media feeds with traction in subreddits, twitter, and youtube.
  • Private jet paths and insider info.

Text

  • Sentiment analysis on entities (tickers and businesses)
  • Business and market reading comprehension. Behind each stock or currency is a business/country/approach, so the system needs to understand this underlying before doing things.

Prices

  • Technical indicators and analysis of these are often used.
  • System should understand that prices are a result of supply, demand, and a bunch of orders.

Output Streams

  • Specific trading platforms
  • Social media and self-published articles.

Reinforcement Learning

  • A strategy is simply a set of rules for moves, on a set of stocks, specific to some schedule.
  • Rules can be formulated on combinations of input and output streams.
  • The system can explore smart or random new strategies at any given date.

Adversary

  • Having an adversarial network which responds to the players decisions could be useful.

Simulations

  • Backtesting, fronttesting.
  • Simulating market movements based on media channels is something that needs to be determined whether it works or not.
  • Randomized chances for unexpected events (black swan, slippage, mergers and acquisitions)

Brand

  • Dragon in the shape of a price line
  • Green and black
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