Background
AlphaGo Zero
- The success was because they created a system with 3 parts (DNNs, RL, and branching).
- They had real players come and validate the moves and strategies.
- Finally once they had a powerful model, they trained it further on games against itself.
- 0 sum game
Stock Market
- The stock market is volatile and filled with noise from orders and news.
- There are basically 3 key players: retail investors, institutional investors, and independent investors.
- Strategies include arbitrage, day trading, value trading, swing trading, gambling, and retail trading.
- Unlike the moves in a Go game, the player often has little to no influence on the results of the game unless it has either media influence or lots of money. Moves include (buying, selling/writing, shorting, exercising, publishing, commenting). These moves can be performed on most stocks, derivatives, currencys, or media outlets without any explicit rules.
- Not a 0 sum game.
##SkyWing
Input Streams
- News feeds via scraping or APIs.
- SEC earnings reports and filings.
- Price candle data.
- Media feeds with traction in subreddits, twitter, and youtube.
- Private jet paths and insider info.
Text
- Sentiment analysis on entities (tickers and businesses)
- Business and market reading comprehension. Behind each stock or currency is a business/country/approach, so the system needs to understand this underlying before doing things.
Prices
- Technical indicators and analysis of these are often used.
- System should understand that prices are a result of supply, demand, and a bunch of orders.
Output Streams
- Specific trading platforms
- Social media and self-published articles.
Reinforcement Learning
- A strategy is simply a set of rules for moves, on a set of stocks, specific to some schedule.
- Rules can be formulated on combinations of input and output streams.
- The system can explore smart or random new strategies at any given date.
Adversary
- Having an adversarial network which responds to the players decisions could be useful.
Simulations
- Backtesting, fronttesting.
- Simulating market movements based on media channels is something that needs to be determined whether it works or not.
- Randomized chances for unexpected events (black swan, slippage, mergers and acquisitions)
Brand
- Dragon in the shape of a price line
- Green and black